As faithful readers of the blog will know, I am going to TAM in Las Vegas this weekend. I am currently writing from the airplane because I was bored enough to shell out the $13. It is the future.
Today, I will land around 1PM and then I’m going to go get food at Baja Fresh. I’m very excited, it’s been so long since I’ve had Baja Fresh and it’s amazing. There are workshops going on all day but I didn’t have the money to be going to all of that. Tonight Rebecca Watson is having some thing that also costs money, so I probably won’t be going. I also don’t understand what the thing is, so that doesn’t help.
OMG trying to use wordpress from this droid browser is going to make me shoot myself. FFS.
Tonight, I am insanely going to see Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 at midnight. This is insane because it won’t start until 3AM east coast time, so I’m going to be very very tired. But how often do you get to go see the last Harry Potter the first night it comes out? Never, exactly.
Then tomorrow is filled with all sorts of stuff and I don’t even know what the schedule is. I feel somewhat guilty about that, like I should have paid more attention, but I’m going to all of it, so there’s no real point in looking into it more. Tomorrow night is Penn’s Donut Party, and I’m quite excited about that. I mean, it’s donuts and Penn Jillette, what isn’t to love? I even brought a special party dress! It, alas, doesn’t have a donut on it.
Saturday is more talks that I don’t remember who is when, the third place WWC game is that day between France and Sweden, and I honestly don’t care that much so I probably won’t watch, and then that night I get to go to a double top secret thing that is going to be awesome so you should be jealous, and also feel pretty cheated that I won’t even tell you what it is. On Sunday, I am presenting my paper at 9:50 AM. Awesome, right? There’ll only be like a thousand people in the audience, so no pressure. Then! Then then then!!! USA vs JAPAN, EPIC BRAWL 2011!
I want the US to win, but I have to say I would be really happy for Japan if they won. The team is really amazing, and it’s the first time an Asia side has gotten this far in the WWC. Plus, the whole tsunami meltdown thing. But, I want the US to win so that people will pretend to care about womens soccer for a few more days, I would find that greatly pleasing.
I am on the plane! On the plane! So bored on the plane! I’m on a plane and it’s going fast and I got a aeronautical themed pashmina afghan
Weirdly enough, George Hrab, the MC of the event, is on the same flight as me. I met him originally at the SCA summit in Washington DC where he performed and we took silly pictures and sent a message to a friend of mine who was insane jealous. Mostly because I don’t listen to the Geologic Podcast and he does, so I don’t have a terribly good knowledge of the George Hrabness. Anyway, he’s sitting behind me and threatening to throw things at me, though I think he’s so absorbed in his iPad or whatever it is that he won’t remember to do that. Plus, they don’t hand out free snacks, which is really the best thing to throw at people.
T-minus 1 hour to Las Vegas. Woooooooo!
Hopefully you’ll get lots of really boring updates from me, because I know you’re all really friggin jealous! I’m going to be hanging out with Heidi Anderson, Jenna Marie Griffith, Jen McCreight, Neil deGrasse Tyson (he will hang out with me, dammit, it will happen), and like 200 other awesome people who are awesome.
Alright, enough of this, I’m going to go back to surfing the web in an attempt to find something to write about for social axcess, I can’t find anything worth writing about.
OK, so wow, France is doing much better than expected, and my US team is looking like their number 1 rank is deserved. I am relieved and will go forth being overly optimistic for them because I love them so much.
So, my predictions for the rest of the group games.
France and Germany are tied on points, but France has a much better goal differential, meaning that all they have to do is tie Germany to move forward as the winners. Germany is the favorite, but France has looked much better on the field — something I definitely did not predict. I’d like France to win and that, more than anything, is leading me to say that France will win the group, and Germany will be second.
Japan is definitely going forward, so the competition is between Mexico and England. England is well ahead in goal differential, so they can lose to Japan and still move forward, which is exactly what I think is going to happen. Japan first, England second.
This is as fun as Group A, because the US and Sweden are literally fighting for the number one slot. Like France, all the US has to do is tie to win the group. I think they’re going to outright beat Sweden, or at least that is my hope. US number 1, Sweden number 2.
I simply cannot see Brazil not creaming Equatorial Guinea, which may be very fun to watch, so the competition is now for second place between Australia and Norway. Norway has not been impressive, but Australia’s defense has been lax. Australia just has to tie Norway to move on, and I think they’ve got that in them. I’m saying Brazil 1, Australia 2.
So if the games followed this prediction, we’d end up with the following matches.
France vs England
I’m tempted to say France, as surprised as I am by that. This seems like a very close match to me.
Japan vs Germany
Should be a great game as well, but I think Japan is going to be tough to beat.
US vs Australia
This should be an easy win for the US.
Brazil vs Sweden
This should be an easy win for Brazil.
France vs Japan
I think this is Japan’s.
US vs Brazil
Man, this is tough. I don’t know. They are my two favorite teams. I think Brazil is weak in their defense and the US could exploit it, but sometimes it seems like the US barely even shows up. I’m going to say the US, but I would be thrilled to see either one of these teams in the final.
France vs Brazil
US vs Japan
Halfway through the knockout we’ve got the following:
Out: S. Africa, France!!
2B: S. Korea
Out: Nigeria, Greece
Out: Algeria, Slovenia
Out: Serbia, Australia
So, the first half of the games in the Quarterfinals are (with FIFA rank)
Uruguay (16) v S. Korea (47)
USA (14) v Ghana (32)
Germany (6) v England (8)
Argentina (7) v Mexico (17)
The only game where I don’t have an easy favorite is Argentina v Mexico.
So, I’m beginning to think that unless you’re from Central or South America, you’re just here to disappoint me. And I’m not sure that that’s even right because I wasn’t impressed with Brazil. Even the Germans, who looked unstoppable after their total destruction of Australia, have lost to a minor team. I guess that’s the great thing about World Cup, it’s unpredictable. I dunno if you remember who my favorites originally were, but they are now officially 1) Uruguay 2) Argentina and 3) Mexico. Favorites, of course, not being who I think will win, but who I want to win.
Argentina v South Korea
Argentina, 4-1, is looking pretty good offensively, especially with the first hat trick of the Cup going to Gonzalo Higuaín, but they let in a goal with a pretty intense lapse of defensive attention. Still, they’re looking good and might go all the way.
Greece v Nigeria
Greece wins! For the first time! Nothing like a good comeback story, especially when there’s a very obvious villain in the form of a Nigerian player, Kaita, who got kicked off the field for a blatant red card offense. It’s what red cards are there for.
France v Mexico
I admit that I actually freaked out with happiness when Mexico scored it’s first goal against France. The second was just icing on the cake, because it’s almost impossible for France to advance. This is two part, because I like Mexico and I know some people really enthusiastically cheering for Mexico, and also I hate the French team.
Germany v Serbia
WTF Germany? How do you lose to Serbia? This is one of two games this day that were dominated by over-refereeing. I mean, the sheer number of cards thrown out was absurd, especially considering how mild some of the fouls were.
USA v Slovenia
Oh, let’s talk some referee bullshit. The US was robbed, absolutely robbed, of a third goal. They should have been moving forward with a win rather than a draw. Still, the US will move forward if they win their next game, which slightly makes up for it. But the lame-ass ref also gave a yellow card for an intentional handball that wasn’t. Very irritating. I read that the ref is probably going to be not allowed to ref any more World Cup games.
England v Algeria
Scoreless matches aren’t always boring, but this one sure as hell was. England and I aren’t speaking for the moment, I’m too disappointed in them. I don’t even want to talk about it, have some statistic porn, courtesy Nate Silver and Wikipedia.
Halfway through the first round of group matches.
Argentina v Nigeria
Argentina, especially Lionel Messi, was incredibly agile and fast with the ball, but they were denied again and again by the fast and talented Nigerian goalie, Vincent Enyeama. Any goalie less talented and Messi would have had at least one goal and possibly three. Argentina wasn’t fully confident, they’ve got some defensive weaknesses, but they’re the most impressive team I’ve seen so far.
S. Korea v Greece
Well, who the hell expected that out of S. Korea, a contender out of nowhere and good for them. Greece has been a little weak lately, but did not expect that.
England v USA
This is a game the USA should have lost, the way they were playing, and if not for the awful error on the part of the English goalie, Robert Green, they definitely would have. The English played much better, the US was incredibly lucky. They’ll need to do better.
Algeria v Slovenia
Slovenia comes out the winner, leaving them the surprising leader of Group C. This game was very evenly matched, possession and attempts pretty evenly distributed.
Germany v Australia
I’m not sure Australia even showed up for this game. They’re ranked 20, but they looked like they didn’t even know how the game was played. Gratuitous fouling and total inability to fight the German’s efficient play – so destroyed was Australia that Germany is now a favorite to win the whole thing. Germany looks good (minus the diving) but Australia, come on, that was ridiculous. Every game today got a red card too.
Serbia v Ghana
Well performed on the part of Ghana, especially as they were not at all favored to win.
THE CURRENT STANDINGS
1. Mexico (1)
1. S. Africa (1)
3. Uruguay (1)
3. France (1)
1. S. Korea (3)
2. Argentina (3)
3. Nigeria (0)
4. Greece (0)
1. Slovenia (3)
2. England (1)
2. USA (1)
4. Algeria (0)
1. Germany (3)
2. Ghana (3)
3. Serbia (0)
4. Australia (0)
Let us pretend I’ve spent no time on this and am merely grabbing some things out of a random hat. The following are 6 games over the next few weeks that I think will be entertaining, in order of appearance, all times PST.
6/12 11:30 England (8) v USA (14)
England is hungry for another cup, but their line-up is a bit wobbly. These two are probably competing for number 1 in their group, and will both make it out, but this game will show us if the US is going to actually do anything worthwhile and if England is going to make a real run to repeat ’66.
6/15 11:30 Brazil (1) v North Korea (105)
These are the two extremes; Brazil is FIFA rank number 1 and Korea DPR is number 105, the lowest in the competition by nearly 30. Perhaps I’m a sadist, but this could be extremely fun to watch. It probably helps that it’s really easy to hate North Korea, though there are some worries that there will be negative consequences for the players if they embarrass their dictator , so maybe it’s easy to root for the incredibly downtrodden underdogs?
6/17 11:30 France (9) v Mexico (17)
I generally think that the France, Uruguay, Mexico triad is going to be fun to watch, I think they’re very closely matched. And I think my soft-spot goes to Mexico.
6/22 7:00 Mexico (17) v Uruguay (16)
These two are ranked 16 and 17, and it’s likely that this will be win or go home. I suspect this will be a hard fought game.
6/22 11:30 Greece (13) v Argentina (7)
They’re closely matched in terms of talent, likely this will simply be for first, so not quite as much pressure, but I think we’ll see here if Argentina is going to be a real challenger.
6/25 7:00 Portugal (3) v Brazil (1)
Probably the most anticipated match of the knockout rounds. Brazil, number 1, against Portugal, number 3. Plus, they like speak the same language and stuff.
So, I’m not a sports person generally, and I’m not even a football/soccer fan regularly, but I really love the World Cup. I mean, I like soccer, I’ll watch it, but something about the countries competing against each other is really cool, and it’s all in the same sport and not as lame as the Olympics. It’s probably because I actually played soccer, and was still playing soccer when this happened:
So it’s the one sport that the ladies in the US are better at than the men. We’ve won the Women’s World Cup twice, and never placed below third. The boys haven’t done so well. Right now we’re ranked 14th, which is to say we’ll probably get through the first round (weak bracket) but we’re probably not going to do well.
Anyway, the point of this post is that the schedule is up at ESPN and they’re going to air every game live. Most of the games will also be on their website, which I have to figure out how to get to actually play on my computer. It’s vaguely complicated. They are, of course, not showing the finale online.
My favorite news: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/world_cup_2010/default.stm
Numbers for the Nate Silver in us all: http://www.worldcuppredictions.org/
I really like that last site. It’s got the odds listed as follows:
Ivory Coast (26.00)